Focuses on the core techniques of wide applicability and assumes an elementary background in statistics. This applications-oriented work illustrates the methods with real-world applications, many of them international in flavor, designed to mimic typical forecasting situations.
Throughout our nation's history, Americans have found the courage to do right by our children's future. Our challenge is clear and inescapable: America cannot be great if we go broke. This book examines the need to face the Nation's fiscal future, with a look at the economic implications of the long-term federal budget.
As individuals, companies, and countries struggle to recover from the economic crisis, many are narrowly focused on forecasts for the next week, month, or quarter. Yet they should be asking what the global economy will look like in the years to come - where will the long-term risks and opportunities arise? This book deals with these questions.
Explores the widespread disregard for moral values in business decisions and calls for restoration of principled behaviour in politics and economic practices. The unwelcome alternative, the author warns, will be a twenty-first-century global economy in the grip of unending crises.
Argues that the power of emerging markets, when coupled with poor internal regulation and an increasingly anachronistic system of global governance, results in greater instability and income inequality, accompanied by the risk of a major dollar decline.
Presents an overview of financial risk modeling, with a focus on practical applications, empirical reality, and historical perspective. Covering the mean-variance analysis and the capital asset pricing model, this title offers an account of factor models, which are the key to successful risk analysis in every economic climate.
Consists of surveys of high-frequency financial data analysis and econometric forecasting. This work includes chapters that were presented as tutorials to an audience in the Econometric Forecasting and High-Frequency Data Analysis Workshop at the Institute for Mathematical Science, National University of Singapore in May 2006.
The world spins in economic turmoil, and who can tell what will happen next? Cold numbers and simple statistical projections don't take into account social, financial, or political factors that can dramatically alter the economic course of a nation or a region. This book explains what's going on in individual countries.
Developments in technology, radical changes in the global economy, and the relentless pursuit of productivity have altered forever our organizations, our careers, and our lifestyles. This book identifies the unintended consequences of change and provides a set of guiding principles to cope with the paradoxes of modern life.
Economic forecasting is of immense importance as any economic system is a stochastic entity of great complexity and vital to the national development in the information age. This book includes topics such as: the econometric modelling and forecasting of private housing demand, the nonparametric time-detrended Fisher effect, and others.
Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.
Covers developments in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series models, dynamic factor models, nonlinear models and combination methods. This handbook addresses economic forecasting methodology, forecasting models, forecasting with different data structures, and the applications of forecasting methods.