The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events & looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlins prototypes of the fox & the hedgehog Tetlock contends that the fox
- the thinker who knows many little things draws from an eclectic array of traditions & is better able to improvise in response to changing events
- is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog who knows one big thing toils devotedly within one tradition & imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement & the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits
- the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written & impeccably researched the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.


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Growing your own food has become one of the nations most popular pastimes
- in 2008 sales of vegetable seeds exceeded sales of
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There is a significant difference between designing a new algorithm proving its correctness & teaching it to an audience. When teaching algorithms the teacher's main goal should be to convey the underlying ideas & to help the students form correct mental models related to the algorithm. This process can often be facilitated by using suitable metaphors. This work provides a set of novel metaphors identified & developed as suitable tools for teaching many of the classic textbook" algorithms taught in undergraduate courses worldwide. Each chapter provides exercises & didactic notes for teachers based on the authors' experiences when using the metaphor in a classroom setting." ...

This is a book designed to help teachers understand English grammar & explain it to their students. Each chapter focuses on a problematic area for example ' Articles' ' Conditionals' & ' Direct & indirect speech' &

Includes:: exercises for the reader & teaching ideas.

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The perfect grounding for students intending to take their studies to a more advanced level Explaining Physics" contains all the essential concepts required by students studying Physics within any Key Stage 4 science course. " Explaining Physics" emphasizes the applications & social effects of physics & extends its treatment of energy & electronics. The features are: introductory page to each unit to bring out the relevance of the material to everyday life; simple questions at the end of each unit to consolidate learning; & helpful revision summary." ...

I decided to run away. There simply wasnt anything else to do. Here at last is Moominpappas promised life story
- from the days
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Explore Australia continues to be the best-value travel guide & atlas on the market & is an invaluable travel bible for anyone planning an extended holiday in Australia. Explore Australia 2013 covers over 700 towns in detail & each of the countrys capital cities. Theres also an overview of the must sees & must dos for each holiday region in Australia. In addition this trusted guidebook

Includes:: the population for every major town across the country selected food & accommodation listings a comprehensive atlas as well as detailed maps for key tourist towns. An overview of Australia outlining the countrys history flora & fauna completes the package.

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Create your own picture book as you learn about life in this exciting city London. The Explore London: The Ultimate Sticker Book" is ideal for decorating your own books or for project work at school. This activity book makes learning fun. Create your own picture book as you find out about life in London from what to see on a River Thames cruise to visiting Londons great sporting venues at Wimbledon & Wembley. Read the captions in the booklet & using the labels beside each sticker choose the image that best fits in the space available. Dont forget that your stickers can be stuck down & peeled off again. Some of this content is taken from the " Ultimate Sticker Guide: London"." ...

At 5895 metres (nearly 4 miles) above sea level the summit of Mount Kilimanjaro is the highest point on earth that a walker can reach. Success is not guaranteed because each persons response to rapid altitude gain is different. But you can improve your chances by a wise choice of route & itinerary by thorough preparation & by taking care of yourself on the mountain. The author provides information & advice about how to choose your route; how to prepare & what to pack; how to prevent & manage altitude sickness; full descriptions of Marangu Machame & Rongai routes; background on Tanzania wildlife & Mount Meru; & map flap showing all ascent routes. The book has over 60 colour photographs opens flat & is printed on waterproof paper. ...

Interest in tracing your family's past has never been stronger & with the full release of the 1911 census & the ongoing digitisation of records in the UK it has never been easier to start your search for your ancestors. This updated edition of an acclaimed guide to family history has been fully updated & revised to cover all the latest developments while retaining the fascinating historical background that makes it invaluable to anyone researching their family's prosperity professions & location through the generations. This practical highly illustrated & informative book explains how to gather clues from your family explore archives search the internet & create your own family tree. Consultants: Mary Castelyn Peter Christian David Kynaston Marjorie Moore John Rowlands & Sheila Rowlands. ...