A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty & risk Yet every day we base our personal & business plans on uncertainties whether they be next month s sales next year s costs or tomorrow s stock price In The Flaw of Averages Sam Savage-known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects- describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty Along the way he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong on average in areas as diverse as healthcare accounting the War on Terror & climate change In his chapter on Sex & the Central Limit Theorem he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences Instead of statistical jargon Savage presents complex concepts in plain English In addition a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations & simulations to further connect the seat of the reader s intellect to the seat of their pants The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell Praise for The Flaw of Averages Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business government & our personal lives Sam Savage s lively & engaging book gives any interested reader the insight & the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages William J Perry Former US Secretary of Defense Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal In this profound & entertaining book Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical practicable & comprehensible -Harry Markowitz Nobel Laureate in Economics ...

Please note this is a region 2 DVD & will require a region 2 (Europe) or region Free DVD Player in order to play The first series in Yorkshire Television&s long-running fondly remembered children&s drama which traces the lives of four generations of the Flaxton family across the ages This thirteen-part adventure story begins in Yorkshire in 1854 as young Jonathan Flaxton & his mother take up a mysterious inheritance a bleak supposedly haunted hall thought to conceal a wealth of treasure within its imposing walls Jonathan & his new friend Archie Weekes soon encounter all manner of peril from smugglers villains & spies to superstitious villagers & ghostly apparitions With their father reported missing in the Crimean War the family&s situation becomes increasingly desperate but it&s clear that Jonathan & his mother are not the only ones seeking the Flaxton &fortune& ...

Shortlisted for the 2005 Independent Foreign Fiction Prize Elif Shafak's The Flea Palace is a moving & highly original novel about a group of individuals who live in the same building & who together become embroiled in a mystery By turns comic & tragic The Flea Palace is an outstandingly original novel driven by an overriding sense of social justice Bonbon Palace was once a stately apartment block in Istanbul Now it is a sadly dilapidated home to ten wildly different individuals & their families There's a womanizing hard-drinking academic with a penchant for philosophy; a 'clean freak' & her lice-ridden daughter; a lapsed Jew in search of true love; & a charmingly naive mistress whose shadowy past lurks in the building When the rubbish at Bonbon Palace is stolen a mysterious sequence of events unfolds that result in a soul-searching quest for truth' Picaresque' Guardian' Hyperactive & hilarious' Independent ...

It offers an unusual combination of information on the characteristics of each fibre-producing breed as well as the unique qualities of each fibre its history & its potential uses It covers almost every sheep breed in the world
- the longwool breeds of the United Kingdom the Tasmanian merino the Navajo churro the northern European Faroese & dozens & dozens more It also

Includes:: goats (mohair & cashmere of course); camelids such as alpacas llamas & vicunas; bison; horses; musk oxen; rabbits; & even dogs Readers will find everything they want to know about each animal & its fibre including the fibre's colour density strength & staple length & recommendations for processing & using it


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Just 10 minutes of training per day can help you work towards unlocking your body's full potential Beginning with a basic squat (which we as children do naturally but then as adults struggle to perform) The Flexible Body Move better anywhere anytime in 10 minutes a day' guides you through a series of positions stretches rolls & balances that re-train your body to move like it once could Forget everything you think you know about exercise International model & fitness expert Roger Frampton has developed a revolutionary new approach to movement designed to get your body working in the way it was designed to We are born with perfect spines that can move in millions of ways But our sedentary western lifestyles rob us of our natural range of motion & leave us with stiff bodies bad posture & a high incidence of back pain Inspired by advanced yoga practitioners & Olympic gymnasts & in consultation with leading figures from both fields Roger has developed a simple but highly effective set of exercises known as the Frampton Method designed to de-restrict your body & help you reach optimum strength & flexibility with no need for any kind of equipment weights or gym membership Split into method & movement sections the movement sections covers a range of positions from hip actions to headstands & then explain how to take each movement to the next level as you become more advanced With a thorough explanation of the philosophy & science behind the method plus hacks for incorporating it into your day-to-day life this book will inspire you to put down the weights forget HIIT reclaim your body & achieve a level of fitness you've only ever dreamed of ...

As a young guide for Sunshine Tours Armino Fabbio leads a pleasant if humdrum life -- until he becomes circumstantially involved in the murder of an old peasant woman in Rome The woman he gradually comes to realise was his family's beloved servant many years ago in his native town of Ruffano He returns to his birthplace & once there finds it is haunted by the phantom of his brother Aldo shot down in flames in '43 Over five hundred years before the sinister Duke Claudio known as The Falcon lived his twisted brutal life preying on the people of Ruffano But now it is the twentieth century & the town seems to have forgotten its violent history But have things really changed? The parallels between the past & present become ever more evident ...

This delightful novel describes the post-war summer of 1946
- & follows the growing-up of three young women in the months between
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Please note this is a region 2 DVD & will require a region 2 (Europe) or region Free DVD Player in order to play In a gripping tale of courage resourcefulness & determination the consequences of a plane crash strip bare the morals of the survivors The pilot of the doomed aircraft Frank Towns (James Stewart) is an aviator of the old school used to seat-of-the-pants flying distrustful of new technology With his navigator Lew Moran (Richard Attenborough) he is piloting a cargo-cum-passenger plane high above the Arabian desert when a powerful sandstorm rises from below Trusting his instincts Frank decides to fly through & above the storm; a risky move which leads to the starboard engine overheating & catching fire shortly followed by the demise of the port engine Without power the plane begins a long dive towards the ground a sequence memorably intercut with the opening credits before impacting messily Staggering from the wreckage the living find themselves deep within the Arabian desert far off their original flight plan & with little hope of rescue Two of their number were killed instantly while a third (a young oil-worker) has been gravely wounded
- right from this beginning the crosses of the dead loom over those left alive Frank blames himself bitterly for this tragedy (correctly so from an objective perspective) but still tries to exert some authority over the rabble & provide reassurance Since they have enough water for about ten days according to Dr Renaud (Christian Marquand) & plenty of dates as food Frank & Lew spin the yarn that they will surely be found by search aircraft Meanwhile a pecking order emerges among the men (a mix of oil-workers soldiers technical personnel & the aircrew) with the more learnedrespected exerting control over the manual workers As time passes the situation becomes increasingly bleak & Captain Harris (Peter Finch) decides to march to the nearest oasis with Sgt Watson (Ronald Fraser) who is less than keen on the idea In fact Sgt Watson manages to fake a sprained ankle just to get out of the desert trip (a move symptomatic of his hatred of the military) & his superior leaves with another passenger Unfortunately another survivor Trucker Cobb (Ernest Borgnine) is so deranged that he staggers after the departed pair Frank is still so wracked with guilt that he goes after Cobb risking his own life in the brutal midday heat & fails once again in his task Just when the situation looks irretrievably lost Heinrich Dorfmann (Hardy Kruger) comes up with an audacious idea
- why not build a smaller plane from the debris of the first? Initially he is ridiculed both for being German & for having such a crackpot scheme but attitudes change slightly when he reveals that he is actually an aircraft designer Once again there is hope no matter how slim that they won&t become vulture food
- just as long as the struggle for control between Frank & Heinrich doesn&t destroy the entire enterprise Actors James Stewart Richard Attenborough Peter Finch Hardy Kruger Ernest Borgnine Ian Bannen Ronald Fraser Christian Marquand Dan Duryea & George Kennedy Director Robert Aldrich Certificate PGYear 1965 Screen Widescreen 1851 Anamorphic Languages English ; German ; Italian ; Spanish ; French
- Dolby Digital (20) Stereo Subtitles English for the hearing impaired ; French ; German ; Italian ; Spanish ; Swedish Duration 2 hours & 16 minutes (approx)



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The Flinstones meet the superstars of the WWE in this feature-length animation After losing his family&s holiday fund Fred Flinstone (voice of Jeff Bergman) decides to raise his own by putting on a showstopping wrestling spectacle To help bring in the crowds the creative promoter recruits some of the wrestling world&s biggest stars including John Cenastone (John Cena) Mr Mc Magma (Vince Mc Mahon) & The Undertaker (Mark Calaway) & throws his best friend Barney Rubble (Kevin Michael Richardson) in the ring with them ...

Folk-art meets the Stone Age in Jim Shore&s new collection featuring the beloved characters from Hanna Barbera&s The Flintstones Unique variations should be expected as product is hand painted Item is packed in a branded craft box Not a toy or children&s product Intended for adults only The Flintstones by Jim Shore Sculptures have the effect of being carved from wood Decorated with folk art motifs Hand painted resin Gift box ...