Economies evolve & are subject to sudden shifts precipitated by legislative changes economic policy major discoveries & political turmoil. Macroeconometric models are a very imperfect tool for forecasting this highly complicated & changing process. Ignoring these factors leads to a wide discrepancy between theory & practice. In their second book on economic forecasting Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry ask why some practices seem to work empirically despite a lack of formal support from theory. After reviewing the conventional approach to economic forecasting they look at the implications for causal modeling present a taxonomy of forecast errors & delineate the sources of forecast failure. They show that forecast-period shifts in deterministic factors--interacting with model misspecification collinearity & inconsistent estimation--are the dominant source of systematic failure. They then consider various approaches for avoiding systematic forecasting errors including intercept corrections differencing co-breaking & modeling regime shifts; they emphasize the distinction between equilibrium correction (based on cointegration) & error correction (automatically offsetting past errors). Finally they present three applications to test the implications of their framework. Their results on forecasting have wider implications for the conduct of empirical econometric research model formulation the testing of economic hypotheses & model-based policy analyses. ...

The collapse of her brief marriage has stalled Bea Nightingales life leaving her middle-aged & alone teaching in an impoverished borough of 1950s New York. A plea from her estranged brother gives Bea the excuse to escape by leaving for Paris to retrieve a nephew she barely knows; but the siren call of Europe threatens to deafen Bea to the dangers of entangling herself in the lives of her brothers family. By one of Americas great living writers Foreign Bodies is a truly virtuosic novel. The story of Beas travails on the continent is a fierce & heartbreaking insight into the curious nature of love: how it can be commanded & abused; earned & cherished; or even lost altogether. ...

By 1939 thousands of Italian intellectuals teachers & lawyers journalists & scientists had fled Mussolinis fascist government & found refuge in Paris. There amidst the poverty & difficulty of emigre life they joined the Italian resistance founding an underground press that smuggled news & encouragement back to their lost homel&. In Paris in the winter of 1939 a murder/suicide at a lovers hotel hits the tabloid press. But this is not a romantic tragedy it is the work of OVRA Mussolinis fascist secret police & meant to eliminate the editor of Liberazione a clandestine newspaper published by Italian emigres. Carlo Weisz who has fled from Trieste & found work as a foreign correspondent for the Reuters bureau becomes the new editor. Weisz is at that moment in Spain reporting on the tragic end of the Spanish civil war but as soon as he returns to Paris he is pursued by the French Surete by agents of OVRA & by officers of the British Secret Intelligence Service. In the desperate politics of Europe on the edge of war a foreign correspondent is a pawn worth surveillance or blackmail or murder. The Foreign Correspondent is the story of Carlo Weisz & a handful of anti-fascists -- the army officer known as Colonel Ferrara who fights for a lost cause in Spain Arturo Salamone the shrewd leader of a resistance group in Paris & the woman who becomes the love of his Weiszs life herself involved in a doomed resistance underground in Berlin at the heart of Hitlers Nazi empire. ...

Winner of the CWA Ian Fleming Steel Dagger 2012 for Best Thriller of the Year. Perfect for fans of John le Carre a gripping & suspenseful spy thriller from the master of the modern spy thriller (Mail on Sunday) Six weeks before she is due to take up her position as the first female head of MI6 Amelia Levene vanishes without a trace. Her disappearance is the gravest crisis MI6 has faced for more than a decade. There has been no ransom demand no word from foreign intelligence services no hint of a defection. Should news of Levenes disappearance leak out the consequences would be catastrophic. But for disgraced MI6 officer Thomas Kell the crisis offers a chance for redemption. He is approached by his former employers & ordered to find her. Kells search takes him first to France then North Africa where he discovers an extraordinary secret hidden deep in Levenes past. it is a secret that could fatally compromise Britains national security
- & for which Kell could pay with his life. This is another first-rate intelligent thriller which will cement Cummings reputation as one of the most engaging British novelists writing today.
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Winner of the CWA Ian Fleming Steel Dagger 2012 for Best Thriller of the Year. Selected by the Sunday Times & the Guardian as Best Thriller. Perfect for fans of John le Carre a gripping & suspenseful spy thriller from the master of the modern spy thriller (Mail on Sunday) Six weeks before she is due to become the first female head of MI6 Amelia Levene disappears without a trace. Disgraced ex-agent Thomas Kell is brought in from the cold with orders to find her
- quickly & quietly. The mission offers Kell a way back into the secret world the only life hes ever known. Tracking her through France & North Africa Kell embarks on a dangerous voyage shadowed by foreign intelligence services. This far from home soil the rules of the game are entirely different
- & the consequences worse than anyone imagines...

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A wartime romance survival saga & murder mystery set in rural France during the First World War from the bestselling author of Operation Mincemeat & Agent Zig-Zag. Four young British soldiers find themselves trapped behind enemy lines at the height of the fighting on the Western Front in August 1914. Unable to get back to their units they shelter in the tiny French village of Villeret where they are fed clothed & protected by the villagers including the local matriarch Madame Dessenne the baker & his wife. The self-styled leader of the band of fugitives Private Robert Digby falls in love with the 20-year-old-daughter of one of his protectors & in November 1915 she gives birth to a baby girl. The child is just six months old when someone betrays the men to the Germans. They are captured tried as spies & summarily condemned to death. Using the testimonies of the daughter the villagers detailed town hall records & most movingly the soldiers last letters Ben Macintyre reconstructs an extraordinary story of love duplicity & shame
- ultimately seeking to discover through decades of village rumour the answer to the question Who betrayed Private Digby & his men? In this new updated edition the mystery is finally solved.
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It's 1917 & the Allies are determined to finally defeat a weakened Germany
- everything is building up to the summer's Big Push.
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From the bestselling author of Me Before You & two-time winner of the RNA Novel of the Year award. In the 1950s seaside town of Merham everyone knows their place. Lottie Swift an evacuee living with the respectable Holden family loves it while the Holdens' daughter Celia opposes its constraints. When a group of bohemians move into Arcadia a grand Art Deco house on the seafront Lottie & Celia are tempted into their alternative lifestyle. What ensues at the house has tragic & long-lasting consequences for all. Now almost fifty years on Arcadia & its past secrets return to life prompting the question: can you ever leave your past behind? ...

No airforce in the Second World War would make more use of captured planes than the Luftwaffe. With this in mind Jean-Louis Roba has undergone a considerable amount of work in tracking down hundreds of aircraft used by the Luftwaffe & illustrating their uses careers & eventual fates. The book examines the full history of foreign planes in the Luftwaffe from its inception in the prewar years to the end of the Second World War. More than just an account of the Luftwaffes use of captured aircraft the book debunks myths about how prepared the Germans were for war in 1939 & shows how important even such an unreliable source of supplies as captured planes would become to the Luftwaffe. Translated into English for the first time Robas investigative work is supported by over a hundred pictures of the planes themselves & gives a rare opportunity to see British & American planes repainted in German colours & symbols. ...

Lie detection offender profiling jury selection insanity in the law predicting the risk of re-offending the minds of serial killers & many other topics that fill news & fiction are all aspects of the rapidly developing area of scientific psychology broadly known as Forensic Psychology. Forensic Psychology: A Very Short Introduction discusses all the aspects of psychology that are relevant to the legal & criminal process as a whole. It

Includes:: explanations of criminal behaviour & criminality including the role of mental disorder in crime & discusses how forensic psychology contributes to helping investigate the crime & catching the perpetrators. It also explains how psychologists provide guidance to all those involved in civil & criminal court proceedings including both the police & the accused & what expert testimony can be provided by a psychologist about the offender at the trial. Finally David Canter examines how forensic psychology is used particularly in prisons to help in the management treatment & rehabilitation of offenders once they have been convicted.

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